Twenty Two Days in October

That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown length, as of as we speak. What can we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA? EIA, Census?

We’ve got already missed the employment state of affairs launch. As well as, we’ll miss CPI, PPI, import and export worth indices, state employment/unemployment, state JOLTS for August.

Now, as I perceive it, knowledge assortment has ceased with the shutdown. That implies that when subsequent week rolls round (technically calendar week of the 12) if the federal government continues to be closed, we received’t be getting as well timed and correct head rely/job rely was would in any other case, for the October launch.

From BEA, we lose worldwide commerce.

We’ll additionally miss development spending, EIA brief time period vitality outlook plus quite a lot of EIA petroleum associated releases, wholesale commerce, retail gross sales, constructing permits, housing begins, and many others.

For now, the very best snapshot I’ve is the next, from ADP:

Determine 1: US non-public nonfarm payroll employment by August, implied preliminary benchmark (daring black), nowcasted non-public NFP utilizing 3mo modifications in ADP (gentle blue), +/- one se prediction interval (grey+), Bloomberg consensus as of 10/5 (pink +), and ADP non-public NFP September launch (tan), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS, ADP by way of FRED, BLS prel. benchmark, Bloomberg, writer’s calculations.

Bloomberg consensus is for +35K non-public NFP achieve. My nowcast suggests a lower of 78K.

Maybe extra importantly, there’s a divergence in employment development between massive and small companies.

Determine 2: Change in employment from Could 2025 in companies with lower than 500 workers (blue), in companies with 500 and extra workers (tan), each in 000’s, s.a. Supply: ADP by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations. 

An analogous pattern occurred within the runup to the 2007-08 recession (utilizing the discontinued collection).

Determine 3: Change in employment from Could 2025 in companies with lower than 500 workers (blue), in companies with 500 and extra workers (tan), each in 000’s, s.a. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey Supply: ADP (discontinued collection) by way of FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations. 

In distinction, no comparable divergence was exhibited in 2022H1, or in 2024.