From WSJ July survey out in the present day:
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), WSJ July survey imply (tan), lowest/highest 10% based mostly on 2025 this autumn/this autumn progress (grey strains), GDPNow of seven/9 (inverted gentle blue triangle), NY Fed nowcast of seven/11 (crimson sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Supply: BEA, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Just one forecast is for 2 consecutive unfavorable quarters of GDP progress (AC Cutts, 5 consecutive quarters), whereas there are lots of forecasts of a person quarter of unfavorable progress.
The WSJ survey imply trajectory is near the Might SPF median. Not surprisingly, the WSJ progress charge for Q2 is simply between the Atlanta and NY Fed nowcasts (see right here).
A cautionary observe from the WSJ:
Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, cautioned that official financial indicators, which mix precise information from surveys with estimates, usually wrestle to seize inflection factors.
“Nearly as good as our stats are, they only weren’t made for these sorts of very giant strikes in coverage that trigger a knee-jerk response,” Swonk stated. “It makes it even tougher to learn the tea leaves.”
Trump’s insurance policies—which in addition to tariffs embrace a clampdown on unlawful immigration, stepped-up deportations and a just-signed megabill reducing taxes and a few spending—may take time to filter into the actual financial system.
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