On December 29, the Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA) of China introduced the graduation of a large-scale navy train round Taiwan. Whereas the particular motives stay unclear, it’s broadly believed inside Taiwan that this can be a response to the diplomatic tensions between China and Japan brought on by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s remarks about Taiwan in November, in addition to the just lately accredited U.S. arms gross sales to Taiwan. Nonetheless, the timing of this train continues to be considerably shocking, particularly contemplating the Shanghai-Taipei Metropolis Discussion board had been held simply at some point prior.
As a result of Beijing has constantly refused direct dialogue with the Democratic Progressive Occasion (DPP), in energy since 2016, the city-to-city discussion board, a political legacy of Ma Ying-jeou’s administration, has change into the de facto highest-level common trade mechanism between mainland China and Taiwan. Though the discussion board has been utilized by the DPP as a pretext to criticize the KMT, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an nonetheless visited Shanghai regardless of the strain. This sudden navy train, beginning so quickly after his journey, undoubtedly represents a heavy blow to the KMT’s picture.
In contrast to the DPP’s hardline stance towards Beijing, the KMT has constantly used sustaining peace between Taiwan and the mainland as its political banner. In his speech on the discussion board, Chiang acknowledged his help for pleasant exchanges with the mainland. Nonetheless, the navy train forged his feedback in a deeply ironic gentle. Why would Beijing select to sacrifice the KMT’s repute in Taiwan by staging a navy train that appears to don’t have any sturdy motive?
Beijing has lengthy sought to stability the DPP’s affect in Taiwan, significantly since Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016. To this finish, it repeatedly invited influential KMT politicians to go to mainland China and tried to domesticate “pro-mainland components” in Taiwan. Han Kuo-yu, former mayor of Kaohsiung and present president of the Legislative Yuan, was as soon as thought of a rising political star and obtained Beijing’s help. He was invited to the mainland in 2019 to satisfy with native officers and students. Nonetheless, after his defeat within the 2020 presidential election, he was impeached by the residents of Kaohsiung, inflicting Beijing to steadily lose curiosity in him.
Subsequently, Fu Kun-chi, former Hualien County Justice of the Peace and present KMT caucus convener within the Legislative Yuan, appeared to change into a key determine supported by Beijing. At Beijing’s invitation, Fu visited the mainland in 2024 and met with Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning, thought of a key determine in shaping Beijing’s Taiwan coverage. Moreover, following Fu’s go to, Beijing made restricted concessions in its Taiwan coverage, resembling easing restrictions on imports of some Taiwanese agricultural merchandise, to offer the KMT with small rewards and political capital.
Due to this fact, a two-way choice mechanism seems to exist between the Chinese language Communist Occasion (CCP) and the KMT. On the KMT’s half, some politicians view their ties with Beijing as political capital, though others inside the get together might view it extra negatively. In the meantime, the CCP tends to favor KMT figures with secure help of their constituencies (resembling Fu and Chen Yu-jen in Kinmen County), or politicians with established affect in Taiwan (resembling former KMT chairperson Hung Hsiu-chu), who’re seen as worthy of help and able to countering assaults from anti-communist components in Taiwan.
Nonetheless, this help has not yielded the outcomes Beijing desired: the KMT misplaced three presidential elections in a row: in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Though the KMT, by cooperation with the Taiwan Folks’s Occasion, has been in a position to examine the DPP within the Legislative Yuan, this benefit is precarious below DPP political offensives, such because the “Nice Recall” in 2025.
Moreover, given the more and more secure Taiwanese self-identity and the strengthening ties between Taipei and each Tokyo and Washington, Beijing has purpose to consider that anticipating the KMT to win the 2028 presidential election is simply too troublesome and distant of a prospect.
Regardless of Beijing’s denial of any plans to attain nationwide (re)unification by drive by 2027, there isn’t any doubt that Beijing considers it essential to exert strain on “Taiwan independence separatist forces” by navy actions round Taiwan. Since 2022, Beijing has performed quite a few navy workouts round Taiwan, usually following so-called “vital provocations” made by pro-independence components.
Due to this fact, Beijing’s Taiwan coverage operates on two tracks: one supporting teams thought of pro-mainland, for whom Beijing is keen to offer some backing to take care of its restricted affect in Taiwanese politics and to counterbalance the DPP; the opposite focusing on teams represented by the DPP, thought of pro-independence, whom Beijing believes it should deter by navy shows.
Nonetheless, below Taiwan’s political system, these two tracks can’t be separated, as a result of any motion by Beijing will affect voter attitudes. Though Beijing repeatedly claims that its navy deterrence is barely directed on the DPP and the CCP is pleasant to the Taiwanese individuals, some polls have proven that the Taiwanese public holds a damaging angle towards the PLA’s navy workouts. This is the reason the two-track technique would possibly backfire: navy deterrence can not drive the DPP to undertake the stance Beijing desires, however it might severely erode voters’ confidence within the KMT’s cross-strait insurance policies.
Beijing is just not unaware of this; it merely can not abandon its hardline stance towards the DPP. It isn’t solely an efficient device for sustaining home nationalism however can also be seen as a diplomatic maneuver. With Washington, Tokyo, and their allies more and more expressing concern concerning the Taiwan situation, Beijing has purpose to consider that demonstrating its resolve to claim management over Taiwan militarily is critical to discourage “exterior forces” from taking part in the “Taiwan card.”
This is the reason ceasing its navy actions towards Taiwan is just not on Beijing’s record of rewards for the KMT. As Beijing’s envisioned peaceable (re)unification turns into more and more not possible, its relationship with the KMT should be considered with better warning and, extra importantly, with much less hope.
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