Weekly Chartstopper: December 19, 2025

This Week

We obtained some main information releases this week, however all of them got here with an enormous ol’ asterisk. (And AI spending remained a spotlight.)

1. The economic system misplaced 105,000 jobs* in October and gained 64,000 in November.

   *DOGE’s deferred resignations, which paid employees via September, drove a 162,000 decline in federal employment.

2. The unemployment fee rose greater than anticipated to 4.6%** in November from 4.4% in September.

   **Doubtless boosted by the federal government shutdown since 75% of the rise in unemployment was from “momentary layoffs” – the class for furloughed federal employees.

3. Retail gross sales have been flat*** in October.

   ***Spending on autos fell 1.6% m/m after the September expiration of the EV tax credit score had pulled ahead demand, whereas decrease gasoline costs contributed to a 0.8% decline in spending at gasoline stations.

4. Headline CPI inflation slowed to 2.7% YoY**** in November from 3.0% in September.

   ****Two issues: First, the BLS assumed housing prices have been flat in October, miserable one of many greatest weights within the CPI. Second, information assortment started Nov. 14 because of the authorities shutdown, so vacation reductions probably depressed costs.

So, for the week, the Nasdaq-100 is up +1% (blue line), and 10-year Treasury yields are down a couple of bp to 4.15% (black line).

Subsequent Week

Listed here are the highest occasions I’m watching subsequent week:

1. Third-quarter actual GDP on Tuesday
2. November industrial manufacturing on Tuesday
3. December shopper confidence on Monday
4. October sturdy items on Tuesday