Vodafone Concept Q2 Preview: Losses to slender on higher ARPU and price management

Vodafone Concept (Vi) is predicted to publish one other weak quarter for Q2FY26, with muted income progress as subscriber erosion continues and 5G-related prices weigh on profitability. In accordance with a median of 5 brokerages, Vi’s income is more likely to develop round 2% year-on-year and keep nearly flat sequentially, whereas losses might slender to round Rs 6,600-7,077 crore.

Kotak Equities expects Vodafone Concept’s income to enhance 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, pushed by a marginal rise in common income per person (ARPU), at the same time as subscriber attrition continues. The brokerage fashions a 1 million decline in end-of-period subscribers to round 196.7 million, whereas ARPU may enhance to Rs 169 per thirty days, aided by tariff changes and one additional day within the quarter.

Nuvama additionally sees income progress of simply 0.5% QoQ, supported by modest ARPU growth however weighed down by a shrinking person base. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to remain flat sequentially. “Key monitorables embody progress on 5G rollout, fund-raise plans, and updates on the AGR plea,” the brokerage famous.

Working efficiency probably regular

UBS expects a weak Q2FY26 for the telco within the absence of value hikes and continued subscriber losses. It estimates income and EBITDA progress of two.1% and 4.2% YoY, respectively, with sequential progress of 1.2% and a couple of.8%. UBS flagged draw back dangers to FY26 capex, saying funding constraints may delay growth. “We are going to monitor administration commentary on fundraising and potential reduction measures round AGR or spectrum dues,” it stated.
JM Monetary tasks a 0.8% QoQ income rise to Rs 11,100 crore and a marginal 1.1% QoQ enhance in reported EBITDA to Rs 4,660 crore. Pre-IND AS EBITDA, which displays the corporate’s money earnings, is more likely to rise 0.9% QoQ to Rs 2,200 crore. It expects internet subscriber loss to slender to 0.5 million throughout the quarter, much like the earlier quarter, with round 1 million additions in cell broadband (MBB) customers aided by ongoing community growth.

Motilal Oswal additionally sees subdued momentum, projecting 1% QoQ income progress, with the advantage of one additional day offset by continued subscriber base decline. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to contract by 30 bps QoQ to 41.5%. It estimates ARPU to rise modestly to Rs 166, whereas whole subscribers are anticipated to fall by about 1 million.

Losses might slender, funding stays a key overhangAnalysts anticipate Vodafone Concept’s internet losses to slender modestly this quarter, as operational effectivity improves and decrease community prices offset finance bills. The corporate’s current steps to regulate spending, consolidate towers, and scale back community overlaps have began reflecting in a steadier value base.

Kotak expects a 1% sequential EBITDA rise, highlighting that whereas working leverage stays restricted, the corporate’s expense controls are supporting money stream stability. JM Monetary and UBS additionally see a gradual enchancment in profitability metrics, helped by a more healthy mixture of high-ARPU customers and secure opex traits.

UBS famous that the delay in fund infusion may drive Vodafone Concept to scale down its capital spending plan for FY26, additional hurting its means to compete with bigger friends Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.

Subscriber decline and ARPU traits

Most brokerages anticipate Vodafone Concept’s ARPU to rise 1-2% QoQ, supported by premiumisation and gradual migration to higher-value plans. Nevertheless, the continued subscriber losses proceed to restrict the advantage of ARPU progress.

Vi’s ARPU is predicted to face between Rs 166-169, in comparison with Rs 165 in Q1FY26. The subscriber base may drop by 0.5-1 million customers, extending the downward development as community gaps and delayed 5G rollouts drive churn.