After a number of months of grueling negotiations, South Korea lastly reached a commerce settlement with america. On July 30, US President Donald Trump introduced that Washington will cost a 15% tariff on imports from Seoul, bringing the speed down from an earlier threatened 25%.
Whereas a written settlement is but to be concluded, the preliminary particulars of the phrases state that South Korea would make investments US$350 billion in “US initiatives”, together with $200 billion in strategic industries equivalent to semiconductors and $150 billion in a shipbuilding partnership.
Moreover, based on US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Seoul will make $100 billion value of vitality purchases over the following 3.5 years, together with “LNG, LPG, crude oil and a small quantity of coal.”
South Korea’s path to a good settlement has been fraught with challenges. An absence of readability within the tariff regime and the Trump administration’s more and more transactional strategy to diplomacy made it troublesome for Seoul to chalk out a predictable course to commerce negotiations.
Furthermore, relatively than prioritizing constant commerce phrases for allies, america has targeted on sustaining conditionality in tariff aid on numerous financial and strategic concessions starting from the elimination of commerce obstacles to elevated purchases of US-made items.
South Korean officers have, so far, navigated a sophisticated and ambiguous negotiation panorama. As a result of deal’s unresolved phrases, there are considerations in Seoul that Washington may search to leverage safety commitments, together with its prolonged deterrence, as a bargaining chip for extracting additional concessions.
That would probably depart South Korea to weigh financial cooperation towards broader strategic compliance. The tumultuous nature of commerce negotiations marks a broader pattern within the US-ROK alliance, the place tariff talks have emerged as a symptom of a extra profound unease.
Since assuming energy for a second time period, US President Donald Trump has pressured coping with “reciprocity” in relations with allies and adversaries alike. Trump has unilaterally prioritized US pursuits, radically departing from Biden-era insurance policies, which emphasised collaboration with allies.
South Korea is firmly on Trump’s transactional diplomacy radar. Trump has made feedback indicating larger protection cost-sharing with Seoul and a possible withdrawal of US troops from the Korean peninsula.
He additionally beforehand acknowledged that Washington’s safety commitments within the area can be a significant a part of tariff negotiations. Trump has successfully tried to merge the safety and financial realms, hinting {that a} failure to safe financial phrases would seemingly result in a grave weakening of safety ensures. The tariff cope with South Korea is reflective of Trump’s transactional playbook.
For Seoul, this improvement raises a sobering actuality. Below the Trump administration, diplomacy with Washington has grow to be a ledger of obligations relatively than a trust-based partnership.
The unpredictability of Trump’s overseas coverage, frequent threats of lowering the US navy deployment in Korea and the conditional nature of cooperation have all contributed to a rising belief deficit. This, in flip, has brought on an erosion of confidence within the reliability of the alliance.
South Korea’s considerations are additional exacerbated by shifting regional dynamics. With North Korea bolstering its nuclear program and China’s ever-growing financial assertiveness, South Korea finds itself in an more and more precarious place.
Furthermore, Seoul feels stress from the trilateral alliance with the US and Japan. Whereas the Camp David Summit in 2023 ushered in a brand new period of cooperation between the nations, it has additionally positioned Seoul in a delicate diplomatic place with little maneuverability.
Whereas a more in-depth safety partnership with Washington and Tokyo helps deter regional threats, it additionally dangers antagonizing Beijing, Seoul’s main commerce accomplice and a key participant in sustaining regional stability.
This mixed pressure complicates Seoul’s strategic calculation, requiring it to decide on between strengthening safety ties, sustaining key financial relations and establishing strategic autonomy.
Confronted with a quickly altering regional dynamic and an more and more unpredictable ally, South Korea can not afford to view the US-ROK alliance because it has up to now. Alliances have moved away from being cast in historic narratives and ideological affinities, and the Trump administration’s transactional nature is consultant of this shift.
Whereas it will be ill-advised to undermine the alliance, Seoul should undertake an interest-driven strategy to overseas coverage. Proactive engagement is the necessity of the hour. The Lee Jae-myung administration wants to interact in constant pragmatic dialogue with the US. There ought to be a stress on cooperation, whether or not inside the trilateral framework or bilaterally.
The onus is on Lee as effectively. He should present an energetic and constructive intent in upholding the US-ROK relationship. The upcoming US-ROK bilateral meet gives Lee with a possibility to showcase his willingness for cooperation with Washington.
Whereas engagement with Washington is of utmost precedence, Seoul should not be apprehensive of reaching out to Beijing, albeit in a restricted capability. For this function, multilateral boards, such because the APEC Summit to be held in South Korea, can function potent platforms for agenda setting.
Whereas it’s unlikely for Seoul to align with Beijing on account of Washington’s strong-arming, the strategic choice of elevated cooperation with China turns into extra attractive as Trump continues to push South Korea right into a nook.
Trump should understand that pushing the “America first” narrative on the expense of a long-standing and trusted ally is certain to be detrimental to Washington’s pursuits in the long term. For now, the inspiration of the US-ROK relationship beneath the Trump administration rests on shaky floor. Restoring stability and belief is essential for the way forward for the alliance.
Gagan Hitkari is non-resident James A Kelly Korea fellow, Pacific Discussion board, Hawaii, US and a PhD candidate on the Division of East Asian Research, College of Delhi in India.
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