Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance financial indicators signifies 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The information is in ultimate gross sales to personal home purchasers.
Determine 1: Ultimate gross sales to personal home purchasers (daring black), GDPNow of seven/25 (purple *), GDPNow of seven/29 (gentle blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2025Q1 third launch, Atlanta Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Since this collection excludes imports and exports in addition to inventories, it ought to be much less affected by distortions related to tariff front-running. That nowcasted ultimate gross sales progress in Q2 is 0.8% SAAR, down from 0.9% simply 4 days in the past. Furthermore, this Q2 progress charge is lower than half the 1.9% in Q1, and a pair of.9% in 2024Q4.
So, don’t be overly centered on GDP.
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