Turkish-occupied Cyprus votes, Erdoğan decides?

Turkish Cypriots are heading to the polls on Sunday to elect a brand new chief – however as historical past exhibits, Ankara is prone to have the ultimate say, whatever the consequence. A victory for the progressive candidate, nevertheless, may mark a major shift.

The so-called “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)” declared independence in 1983 – almost a decade after Turkey’s army intervention in 1974, which adopted a coup backed by the Greek junta. Since then, the northern a part of the island has remained below Turkish management.

To today, Turkey is the one nation to recognise the TRNC – no different nation, together with these within the EU, has prolonged diplomatic recognition.

The division of Cyprus stays an open wound as Nicosia is the final divided EU capital. The internationally recognised Greek Cypriot south is an EU member, whereas reunification efforts have repeatedly stalled.

Erdoğan has the final say

Two candidates are competing: incumbent conservative Ersin Tatar and socialist Tufan Erhürman, with latest polls giving Erhürman a 10-point lead. An outright majority is required within the first spherical; in any other case, a run-off can be held subsequent week.

However analysts query how a lot actual autonomy the winner could have. “Whatever the consequence, historical past exhibits that the primary participant is Turkey – and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has the final say,” mentioned George Tzogopoulos of the Hellenic Basis for European and International Coverage (ELIAMEP).

Erdoğan’s AKP claims to guard Turkish Cypriots however has been accused of intervening in the neighborhood’s affairs, together with influencing elections.

Tatar, who’s overtly backed by Ankara, helps a two-state answer — Turkey’s official place on the Cyprus dispute. Against this, Erhürman favours a federal settlement based mostly on UN parameters and strongly backed by the EU: a bizonal, bicommunal federation.

Elias Demetriou, head of the Rapprochement Bureau of the Cypriot left-wing get together AKEL, informed Euractiv that Erhürman is skilled and took part within the failed Crans-Montana reunification talks in 2017.

Nevertheless, he warned that the important thing query is to what extent the following Turkish Cypriot chief will symbolize the Turkish Cypriots and never be “a puppet of Erdoğan – because it was the case with Tatar”.

He added that no Turkish Cypriot chief has received re-election since 2005, suggesting {that a} change in management may very well be on the horizon on the Turkish-occupied a part of the island of Aphrodite.