Trump escalates, Ursula hesitates – Euractiv

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At this time:

• EU-US commerce talks evaluation
• Rutte meets Trump
• Macron’s defence splurge
• MEPs battle over migration information
• Across the bloc

Within the capital

It is legacy time.

Ursula von der Leyen now has 18 days to maintain Donald Trump from slapping European exporters with a 30% tariff after he upped the ante over the weekend.

Make no mistake: Failure to safe higher phrases by the 1 August deadline could be disastrous for the EU’s economic system. The truth that Trump’s escalation triggered little greater than a whimper from Brussels over the weekend illustrated the diploma to which von der Leyen’s ‘do not poke the bear’ technique has failed.

As an alternative of partaking with Trump immediately, von der Leyen relied on her greatest man – Maroš Šefčovič, a Slovak-born former communist who has made a profession in Brussels as his nation’s without end commissioner.

Šefčovič is a pleasant man by all accounts however he crashed and burned. Barring a final minute reversal by Washington, which appears unlikely, von der Leyen’s determination at hand full negotiating energy to Šefčovič appears to be like to have been a large fiasco.

Which raises the query: The place was Ursula? Von der Leyen vowed to solely to go go to Washington when a “concrete” deal was prepared. Effectively, it is prepared alright.

European commerce ministers are on account of meet in Brussels right this moment, following a Sunday gathering of ambassadors, who strongly supported von der Leyen’s determination to maintain a €21 billion retaliation package deal within the freezer till August 1, Euractiv’s Thomas Møller-Nielsen tells me. The Fee can even current ministers with a separate listing of countermeasures focusing on roughly €72 billion value of US exports, EU diplomats stated.

“Each packages can be locked and loaded and prepared for use in early August, if negotiations don’t yield an appropriate final result,” stated an EU diplomat.

But when the EU isn’t prepared to make use of the smaller retaliation package deal now, how credible is the bigger menace? And keep in mind, that package deal – designed as a response to 25% metal and aluminium tariffs – didn’t change after Trump bumped up these tariffs to 50%, mid-negotiations.

Trump, as ever, seems to have escalation dominance.

The temper music earlier than Trump’s Saturday announcement signalled {that a} preliminary deal was shut. Trump termed the EU “very good” and Brussels was making ready to swallow the ten% tariffs already in place. Some doubted a dreaded Trumpian letter would materialise.

Now issues are transferring quickly within the mistaken route however that appears to have triggered little soul looking out within the Berlaymont. The EU continues to be sticking with diplomatic yoga, flattery and contortions with no signal of it working, Euractiv’s Alexandra Brzozowski experiences.

The conflicting messages from Paris, Berlin and Rome have not helped issues. France needs a extra assertive, punchy method – and has emphasised the necessity to hit again with tariffs. Germany wished a fast and soiled deal to spare its automotive sector. In the long run neither has occurred and the EU continues to be sitting in self-imposed limbo.

Requires the EU to get actual and retaliate are rising – American economist Paul Krugman, a vocal Trump critic, stated the EU ought to hit again, and so do members of the European Parliament, like commerce committee chair Bernd Lange. French MEP Marie-Pierre Vedrenne referred to as for the EU’s anti-coercion instrument to be placed on the desk for commerce ministers right this moment (it gained’t be). Enrico Letta can also be fulminating. Nonetheless, Italy actually, actually doesn’t need to escalate, as made clear by Giorgia Meloni final night time.

The Fee is at pains to indicate it has different choices. Von der Leyen introduced a commerce deal (or quite, an settlement to agree one) with Indonesia over the weekend. EU-Indonesia commerce is value roughly 2% of what EU-US commerce is value.

The excellent news is that the EU is in a greater place than when Trump was threatening 50% tariffs; the dangerous information is that out of the blue Brexit appears to be like smarter: the UK escaped with simply 10% tariffs. Commerce is an space the place the European Fee has the unique competence to behave on behalf of EU international locations. It is the one factor it is imagined to be good at.

Which is why capitals round Europe have a really Trumpian query this morning: ‘What within the hell occurred, Ursula?’

Rutte to satisfy Trump

Some folks, nevertheless, are getting numerous facetime with Trump. NATO boss Mark Rutte will meet him in Washington right this moment, their first assembly because the Hague summit the place European international locations agreed to hike their defence spending. Trump has teased a mysterious huge announcement on Russia right this moment.

Trump has stated he needs NATO international locations to purchase American weapons for Ukraine; in Brussels, EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius is encouraging international locations to make use of their SAFE scheme loans to purchase weapons for Ukraine.

Hearken to what Lindsey Graham stated on Sunday: “Keep tuned about seized belongings … keep tuned a couple of plan to go after the seized belongings extra aggressively, keep tuned for a plan the place America will start to promote to our European allies great quantity of weapons that can profit Ukraine.”

Will the previous Dutch PM put in a great phrase for the EU on commerce whereas he’s there?

Parliament migration battle

Renew, the Greens, and the Left need to cease the ECR group from main negotiations on a key migration invoice. These teams are calling for a vote within the Civil Liberties committee this week to overturn a controversial transfer by the EPP – backed by the far-right – that handed a key file to the ECR and broke Parliament guidelines on file distribution.

Across the bloc

GERMANY | Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer will signal a friendship treaty on 17 July this week, as first revealed by Euractiv. The primary bilateral deal of its variety, it can put a robust give attention to safety and contact on final 12 months’s Trinity Home defence pact.

FRANCE | Emmanuel Macron final night time introduced plans to lift defence spending by €3.5 billion in 2026, after which by an additional €3 billion in 2027. Extra right here.

The €40 billion austerity plan for 2026 that Prime Minister François Bayrou will unveil on Tuesday is predicted to be rejected by all opposition events. This might result in the autumn of the federal government when parliament votes on the proposal in autumn. Learn extra.

SPAIN | Plans for full fiscal autonomy for Catalonia can be introduced by a joint committee comprising the nationwide authorities and the regional authorities, as Pedro Sánchez comes underneath stress from separatists to grant them management over taxation. Learn extra.

CZECHIA & SLOVAKIA | Czech PM Petr Fiala wrote to his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico asking him to not block the EU’s 18th sanctions package deal towards Russia, invoking their nations’ shared historical past of Soviet occupation. On Saturday, Fico stated he hoped to succeed in a deal by Tuesday. Learn extra.

Additionally on Euractiv

FRAUD FAIL: Because the Fee prepares to pitch its subsequent long-term finances on Wednesday, one factor is noticeably absent: a severe plan to cease EU money from being siphoned off by fraudsters, Elisa Braun writes. Learn extra.

PUTIN’S GOT WOOD: Russian and Belarusian wooden continues to be getting into the EU regardless of sanctions, simply as EU international locations need to delay the very regulation that would spot it – the bloc’s anti-deforestation regulation, writes Sofía Sanchez Manzanaro. Learn extra.

Agenda

Contributors: Alexandra Brzozowski, Thomas Møller-Nielsen, Aurélie Pugnet, Sofia S. Manzanaro, Elisa Braun, Nick Alipour, Laurent Geslin, Inés Fernández-Pontes, Natália Silenská.

Editors: Matthew Karnitschnig, Sofia Mandilara and Charles Szumski.