Betting is now 37% Supreme Courtroom upholding IEEPA tariffs.
Supply: Kalshi, accessed 10/23/2025.
What occurs if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down, efficient tariff rate-wise?
Determine 1: Common efficient tariff price (blue), common declared tariff price (tan), and common efficient tariff price if IEEPA tariffs are struck down (mild blue), all in %. Calculations assumes October values of customs income and imports each the identical as September. Assumes in October, $200 bn income (SAAR) comes from IEEPA tariffs per Tax Basis. Supply: OECD Interim Financial Outlook, Paweł Skrzypczyński, Tax Basis, and creator’s calculations.
I’ve used 1/10 of the Tax Basis’s $2 trillion estimate to guess on the discount of IEEPA tariff revenues. That is an approximation, with out-years possible having extra tariff income as a result of trending imports, whereas extra is available in early as a result of pre-substitution timing; I’m assuming the results offset one another.
After all, Mr. Trump may then attempt to use Part 201 or different authority to impose tariffs (see right here for listing), though a few of these options would require time to implement.
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