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Sub-Saharan Africa commerce worth up 9.7% however tariffs to hit development

Sub-Saharan Africa commerce worth up 9.7% however tariffs to hit development


The worth of Sub-Saharan Africa’s items commerce grew by 9.7% within the first half of the 12 months versus the primary half of 2024, the world’s quickest fee, however US tariffs are more likely to weigh on development and intra-Africa commerce nonetheless lags different areas, based on a report by logistics firm DHL.

The corporate’s World Connectiveness Tracker, produced with NYU Stern, discovered that Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports drove the rise, recording round 16% worth development within the first half of 2025 versus the primary half of 2024, dwarfing circa 8% recorded by East Asia and the Pacific, the subsequent quickest rising export area.

In contrast, the worth of imports to sub-Saharan Africa grew by round 4%, in comparison with 9% for North America and eight% for the Center East & North Africa. 

Throughout the Sub-Saharan Africa area, the nations with the quickest commerce worth development in the course of the first six months of 2025 had been Central African Republic, Zambia, Eritrea, Burkina Faso, and Senegal, whereas the nations reaching the biggest quantities of absolute commerce development in U.S. greenback phrases had been Ghana, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Senegal.

“The present Sub-Saharan Africa commerce development forecast implies a considerable acceleration relative to the area’s commerce quantity development development because the Covid-19 pandemic,” the authors write. 

US tariffs anticipated to hit commerce

Nevertheless, the report forecast that US tariffs are more likely to have a marked impression on African commerce. Sub-Saharan Africa’s commerce quantity is forecast to develop at a 4.3% annualised fee by way of 2029, relatively than the 5.3% fee projected as of January 2025. That can nonetheless be world’s second-fastest commerce quantity development, behind solely South & Central Asia.

This 12 months has seen tariffs ramped by on African nations and the expirty of the US’s longstanding African Development and Alternative Act (AGOA), which offered tariff-free entry to the US marketplace for dozens of African nations.

The previous twenty years have additionally seen a rising share of Sub-Saharan Africa’s worldwide exercise join the area to China and to China’s shut allies (as labeled by Capital Economics), Nevertheless, the area nonetheless conducts extra worldwide exercise with the United States and its shut allies (which embrace main European economies) than it does with China and its shut allies.

With analysis suggesting that commerce with the US may lower markedly because of tariffs and AGOA’s expiry, specialists say that growing intra-African commerce may fill the hole.

Intra-African commerce nonetheless lags

Nevertheless, the report discovered that there’s nonetheless loads of room to develop intra-African commerce. 

Certainly, Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as one of many areas the place nations commerce over unusually lengthy distances, with a low share of commerce happening inside the area. In 2024, solely 19% of the area’s commerce was intra-regional, in comparison with a world common of round 50.7% (a brand new report low), and its commerce flows traversed a mean distance of 7074 km, in comparison with a world common of 5000km. 

The nations that averaged the best intra-regional share in 2024 had been Eswantini, Lesotho, Mali, Botswana, and Namibia, and the nations that averaged the bottom intra-regional share had been Cabo Verde, Sudan, Ethiopia, Mauritania, and Equatorial Guinea.

The tracker discovered some encouraging indicators of exercise – outward and inward greenfield FDI tasks and outward and inward M&A transactions elevated inside Sub-Saharan Africa within the twenty years from 2004-2024.

Nevertheless, items exports inside Sub-Saharan Africa elevated by solely a modest quantity and items imports inside the area really decreased, suggesting that the African Continental Free Commerce Space has a lot work to do to bolster intra-African commerce in items. 

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