(the place I *don’t* equate 2 consecutive quarters to a recession, as that’s what rookies do…):
Determine 1: Annualized GDP development in 2025H1, calculated as log variations. Supply: BEA and writer’s calculations.
The states with detrimental development are Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Oregon, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming, with Oregon hardest hit (-1.4% annualized). The US development fee over this identical interval was 1.6%. These negative-growth fee states account for about 8% of complete US GDP.
A fairly completely different image is proven utilizing employment development by state over the 6 month interval as much as June 2025, corresponding roughly to the interval proven in Determine 1.
Determine 2: Nonfarm payroll employment development in 2025H1, calculated as log variations. Supply: BEA and writer’s calculations.
Ten states have detrimental development charges, however not the identical. In 2025H1, the correlation between the 6 month change in employment and the quarter change in GDP is simply 0.03.
Determine 3: 2025H1 GDP development annualized vs. 2025H1 employment development annualized. Nearest neighbor match is tan line. Supply: BEA, BLS and writer’s calculations.
This poor mapping from employment to GDP development on the cross part is according to the divergence in development charges of GDP and employment within the mixture.
Determine 4: GDP (black), GDPNow (grey +), NFP (blue), implied preliminary benchmark (inexperienced), early benchmark (purple), civiian employment – analysis collection (tan), all in logs 2024Q4=0. Q3 is July and August. Supply: BEA, BLS, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Notice that each maps differ from Zandi’s recession map, proven right here.
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