Inside a 12 months of taking workplace, U.S. president Donald Trump turned international commerce on its head. His sweeping tariffs took impact on Aug. 1, and have since upended numerous commerce relationships international locations constructed by way of years of diplomacy. But regardless of the U.S.’ tariffs, international commerce has been extra resilient than anticipated, say Macquarie’s analysts of their 2026 international financial and market outlook (which was launched in December). They’ve even benefitted an unlikely group: Southeast Asian economies.
It is because many Chinese language exporters turned to transshipping to scale back tariff funds—a course of that led them to route items by way of ASEAN international locations earlier than delivery them to the U.S.
Consequently, in 2025, the U.S. noticed a discount in Chinese language items, which had been slapped with steep 40% tariffs, and a rise in ASEAN imports, which had decrease tariffs averaging 10%.
President Trump, in the meantime, sought to diversify U.S. provide chains by inking commerce offers with 4 ASEAN international locations—Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam—and pledging America’s dedication to the area.
“Our message to the nations of Southeast Asia is that the US is with you 100% and we intend to be a robust accomplice and buddy for a lot of generations to come back,” Trump instructed leaders on the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 26, noting that two-way commerce between U.S. and Southeast Asia had reached a file of $453 billion in 2024.
China too, has sought to deepen ties with their Southern neighbours, signing an upgraded Free Commerce Settlement (ACFTA 3.0) with ASEAN on the identical summit—and cementing its place as Southeast Asia’s largest buying and selling accomplice.
This has translated into regular development for the ASEAN area.
“ASEAN’s development in 2025 (+4.8%) turned out to be resilient and largely unchanged from 2024,” Maybank’s analysts say of their ASEAN Macro 2026 Yr Forward report, including that “the fog of uncertainty from tariffs has dissipated”.
Maybank additionally famous that ASEAN international locations’ negotiations with the White Home resulted in tariff charges that had been a lot decrease than those Trump initially threatened, which had been as excessive as 46% for Vietnam and 36% for Thailand. In the meantime exemptions for tariff classes like electronics, prescription drugs, power and minerals additional lowered the chew of the tariffs.
An ongoing shift to dealmaking
However with the U.S. midterm elections looming in Nov. 2026, Trump will probably shift his focus to dealmaking and decreasing financial uncertainty, Macquarie’s analysts say.
This shift has already begun in latest months, they add, with the U.S. inking a bilateral framework settlement with the EU in July, and a deal to decrease tariff charges for China in late October. A number of companions have additionally signed related tariff-slashing offers, together with the UK and Japan.
“Wanting forward, we suspect the dealmaking method to persist in 2026,” Macquarie’s analysts say, including that notable potential offers embody these with Mexico and Canada, which represent 27% and 32% of U.S. exports.
Regardless of this, consultants say that relations between the US and China will probably stay tense. “Comparatively excessive tariffs on China might lead to an extra diversification of provide chains throughout Asia, with Chinese language producers shifting extra manufacturing to economies within the area,” Macquarie’s report reads.
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