Seasonal and Calendar Elements Drive Rise in November Delinquencies

by Calculated Threat on 12/23/2025 02:39:00 PM

From Intercontinental Alternate: ICE First Have a look at Mortgage Efficiency: Seasonal and Calendar Elements Drive Rise in November Delinquencies

Intercontinental Alternate, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … at present launched the November 2025 ICE First Have a look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosures and prepayment traits.

“Whereas the topline delinquency numbers present a pointy improve, we’ve seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled funds didn’t publish till early December,” mentioned Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Analysis at ICE. “Total efficiency was in step with what historic patterns would counsel. That mentioned, December knowledge will probably be essential to look at to substantiate how rapidly debtors recuperate from this short-term uptick.”

Key takeaways from this month’s findings embody:

• Delinquencies rose: The variety of past-due mortgages rose by 275,000 from October to 2.3 million in November, pushing the nationwide delinquency charge to three.85% — the best stage in over 4 years.

• Influx of newly delinquent debtors: 609,000 debtors who had been present on funds in October turned delinquent in November, marking the most important single-month influx since Might 2020. Rolls from 30- to 60-day and 60- to 90-day delinquency bands additionally elevated sharply.

• Delinquencies aligned with historic calendar results: November’s delinquency charge improve was in step with prior years when the month ended on a Sunday, which final occurred in 2014 (+61 bps), 2008 (+112 bps), and 2003 (+57 bps) — all of which exceeded this yr’s 50 foundation level improve.

• Prepayments declined: After reaching a 3.5-year excessive in October, prepayment exercise retreated in November, falling 18% month over month.

• Foreclosures exercise blended: Foreclosures exercise dipped in November as a consequence of seasonal and calendar results. Nonetheless, foreclosures begins (+25%), gross sales (+25%) and lively foreclosures volumes (+21%) all stay properly above final yr’s ranges.
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Here’s a desk from ICE.