Recommitting to Japan-South Korea cooperation amid uncertainty

This text, initially revealed by Pacific Discussion board, is republished with permission.

As President Lee Jae-myung takes workplace in South Korea, his new authorities is poised to start rebuilding home belief and setting forth a brand new overseas coverage agenda.

South Korea has been in political limbo for the previous six months since former president Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial regulation in December 2024 – and within the meantime the worldwide enviornment has been thrown into chaos. As South Korea reemerges into this new world context, it faces some troublesome choices about handle its relationships with its key financial and safety companions.

Exactly due to this unsure outlook, now could be a important time for the governments in South Korea and Japan to recommit to additional strengthening their bilateral relations to take care of shared issues.

Previous to the latest interval of limbo, Japan-South Korea ties had improved markedly as a part of a push by former President Yoon, former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and former US President Joe Biden to strengthen trilateral relations amongst their international locations. Because the trilateral Camp David Summit in August 2023, over 80 US-Korea-Japan dialogues have been convened to advertise collaboration in areas starting from economics to safety to people-to-people alternate.

Nevertheless, with latest adjustments in political management, there are questions as to how Japan-South Korea relations will evolve within the coming months underneath the Shigeru Ishida and Lee administrations as the 2 leaders start to interact.

Why ought to the governments of Japan and South Korea recommit to cooperation now? To start with, the 2 governments face worsening safety threats. Each Japan and South Korea harbor long-standing considerations about China, in addition to about North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile applications.

Issues about North Korea have been compounded by deepening cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow within the battle in Ukraine and the probability that Russia is rewarding North Korea’s help with the switch of navy applied sciences.

As well as, Japan and South Korea rely closely on a world financial order that’s at present in disaster.

For years, the World Commerce Group has been stalled by disagreements amongst developed and creating international locations and challenged by the practices of China’s state-led financial system. Now, the commerce system is underneath immense pressure as the US imposes unilateral tariffs that undermine the “most favored nation” precept, and escalating commerce battle looms as a risk.

Japan and South Korea share an curiosity in stabilizing the present financial order, sustaining comparatively free circulate of products and providers and strengthening their very own financial safety and nationwide resilience.

US ally downside: Disruption trumps stability

Furthermore, Japan and South Korea should take care of a mutual US ally that’s more and more a supply of disruption somewhat than stability.

Each international locations run important commerce surpluses with the US, which has made them prime targets for tariffs. Japan and South Korea at present face reciprocal tariffs of 24% and 25% respectively, in addition to Part 232 tariffs on autos, auto elements, metal, and aluminum. Japanese and Korean corporations are being requested to speculate extra within the US.

The 2 governments are additionally dealing with US stress to spice up their protection spending and host nation help and to extend other forms of alliance burden-sharing concurrently the US is contemplating decreasing its navy presence.

Basically, the return of an “America First” strategy to US overseas coverage throws conventional alliances and establishments into query, leaving Japan and South Korea in a extra susceptible place.

How can Japan and South Korea work collectively to handle these challenges?

Step one is to keep up the constructive progress that has been achieved over the past two years.Cooperative mechanisms have been established, and plans have been set in movement to begin addressing most of the frequent considerations talked about beforehand. Some initiatives will should be reexamined underneath new nationwide management, however they represent an necessary baseline that shouldn’t be misplaced.

Though the Trump administration has reaffirmed help for trilateral US-Japan-South Korea cooperation to date, Tokyo and Soul might must push ahead bilaterally with out Washington in some circumstances.

Second, Japan and South Korea might profit from consulting with each other concerning their respective bilateral negotiations with the US on commerce and safety points. In some circumstances, they could even discover inventive methods to coordinate their efforts.

For instance, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won not too long ago proposed that South Korea and Japan may reply to US stress by collectively buying liquefied pure gasoline from the US, “to extend deal measurement and leverage larger shopping for energy to safe decrease costs.”

Any such strategy could possibly be utilized in different areas. Tokyo and Seoul may additionally quietly seek the advice of on their respective backside strains, to keep away from one authorities taking a “unhealthy” take care of the US that units a unfavorable precedent for the opposite.

Third, Japan and South Korea can construct upon the inspiration of the final two years to domesticate extra widespread help for bettering bilateral ties amongst their home stakeholders together with legislators, civil society organizations, students and most of the people.

There have already been modest enhancements within the two international locations’ public sentiment towards one another, and now could be the time to construct on this momentum. The extra stakeholders who see Japan-South Korea ties as priceless, the extra resilient their relationship might be to unfavorable episodes sooner or later.

There are additionally prone to be alternatives to construct ties within the trilateral context; for instance, the US Home of Representatives not too long ago launched bipartisan laws to ascertain an inter-parliamentary dialogue amongst elected politicians within the US, Japan and South Korea.

Fourth, Japan and South Korea will profit from embedding their bilateral cooperation in broader regional and worldwide coalitions.

Many of the issues that these two international locations face can’t be solved by means of bilateral cooperation alone; as an alternative, Tokyo and Seoul should companion with different governments within the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and elsewhere to handle transnational safety and financial challenges.

For instance, Lee, the brand new president, has already introduced that he might be attending the June summit of the G7, which is a crucial venue for South Korea to seek the advice of with different like-minded international locations as a visitor. Japan and South Korea can proceed to strengthen their cooperation with NATO as a part of the “Indo-Pacific 4.”

The 2 international locations also needs to discover methods to shore up the worldwide financial system by means of broader commerce initiatives.

For instance, they might work collectively to revitalize discussions on the Free Commerce Space of the Asia-Pacific on the APEC summit in Gyeongju in November, and South Korea may contemplating becoming a member of the Complete and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership in addition to the WTO’s Multi-Occasion Interim Enchantment Arbitration Association.

Participation in such minilateral initiatives will assist additional reinforce and stabilize Japan-South Korea bilateral efforts.

The trail forward is not going to be simple. Inside politics in each international locations are advanced, and leaders should steadiness competing home and overseas coverage priorities shifting ahead. The grievances that hang-out Japan-South Korea relations can’t merely be ignored, and it’ll require cautious, sustained effort to seek out mutually acceptable resolutions.

Nevertheless, taking steps now to place Japan-South Korea relations on a extra resilient footing will assist to facilitate these troublesome conversations – and the prices of not cooperating will improve if the worldwide system turns into extra unstable.

Kristi Govella (kristi.govella@nissan.ox.ac.uk) is an affiliate professor of Japanese politics and worldwide relations on the College of Oxford and senior advisor and Japan chair on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS).