PM Lawrence Wong on navigating the post-American order

“The outdated guidelines not apply, and the brand new ones haven’t been written.”

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong instructed the Monetary Instances in an interview yesterday (Oct 23) that the world is getting into a multipolar period marked by geopolitical rigidity, financial uncertainty, and shifting international commerce patterns.

For Singapore—a small however strategically positioned city-state—the stakes are excessive: it should act decisively to safe its financial future, keep relevance, and put together residents to thrive in a quickly altering world.

The “post-American order”

Wong described the present international panorama as a transition away from unipolar American dominance towards a extra fragmented, multipolar world.

“We’re actually within the midst of an excellent transition to a multipolar world—a post-American order and a multipolar world,” he mentioned.

He emphasised that this shift is just not short-term however displays structural adjustments in international politics and economics. Whereas the US stays a serious energy, Wong famous that its potential—and typically willingness—to form international initiatives is not assured.

Nobody can inform how the transition will unfold however there is no such thing as a doubt it will likely be messy and unpredictable, as a result of America is stepping again from its position as international insurer.

Presently, there are no international locations that may change America’s position within the international system. Though China’s affect is rising, its home challenges and middle-income standing imply it stays a big however not dominant international participant. This leaves Singapore—and the world at giant—in a messy interval of transition, with no clear international chief rising.

Because the US retrenches, international locations are taking up extra accountability for their very own safety and financial resilience. Wong warned that this might weaken the worldwide order, stating that there’s “no going again” as soon as this occurs.

Stability in a multipolar world

And in a multipolar world, stability can’t be assumed.

It might give rise to spheres of affect, exclusionary blocs, and fragmented alliances, making cooperation extra advanced. But, Wong expressed cautious optimism, noting that multipolarity can nonetheless foster new connections and collaboration.

He has ambitions to see ASEAN turn into a extra credible bloc, each politically and economically. To this finish, there are plans to speed up ASEAN integration, making a “extra enticing and aggressive single market.”

Wong additionally famous that, in some methods, US tariffs have catalysed this effort, motivating ASEAN leaders to return along with better urgency on this endeavour. All ASEAN international locations had been initially slapped with excessive tariffs, however since America stays the biggest investor within the area, in depth negotiations have helped many international locations safe barely decrease tariffs.

Singapore, then again, obtained off fairly calmly. For the reason that US doesn’t run a commerce deficit in items or companies with Singapore, solely the baseline tariff of 10% applies. There has additionally been important front-loading of actions, which has dampened the instant affect. Mixed with technological developments similar to AI, the broader financial system has proven resilience.

That mentioned, Wong acknowledged that there will likely be an affect. “We’re already beginning to really feel it in our personal financial system,” he mentioned. “In some ways, the Singapore financial system is just like the canary within the coal mine, as a result of we’re so open and uncovered to the exterior surroundings, we are sometimes the primary to really feel exterior weak spot.” 

The primary half of this 12 months was comparatively clean, nevertheless, Singapore began to see “some slowdown” approaching the second half. As a result of uncertainty, companies are additionally holding again on new investments and hiring.

Sure sectors, similar to semiconductors and prescribed drugs, stay beneath stress. With negotiations nonetheless ongoing with the US, the full affect stays to be seen.

Navigating the tensions between the US and China

Aside from the tariffs, Wong highlighted that tensions between the US and China might additional disrupt the worldwide financial system. “It’s the most consequential relationship on the planet, and likewise probably the most harmful fault line in worldwide relations,” he mentioned.

For now, each international locations are attempting to insulate themselves from one another, but their economies are deeply intertwined. When one financial system applies stress, the opposite responds, making a dynamic of mutually assured disruption. We’re already seeing this at present.

As each international locations weaponise dependencies, Wong famous that this solely pushes all sides to hunt options, develop workarounds and turn into extra self-reliant—and if a full decoupling occurs, it will be “extremely damaging and destabilising.”

When requested if a commerce deal may emerge quickly, he remained hopeful, although it might not resolve the whole lot. “Even some type of a guardrail to handle commerce relations is healthier than nothing,” he mentioned.

If the US and China can proceed to coexist, Singapore and different ASEAN international locations will likely be higher in a position to navigate the brand new surroundings and keep relations with each powers.

What is going to Singapore do?

Wong foresees that the present “unpredictable, messy interval of transition” might final for years, probably much more than a decade. On this surroundings, Singapore goals to work with like-minded international locations and reinforce multilateral frameworks that matter, making certain stability and predictability in international commerce and governance.

Efforts will likely be multi-pronged. Singapore is targeted on reinvigorating present establishments such because the WTO, updating mechanisms, similar to consensus decision-making, which have turn into inefficient, and exploring plurilateral approaches to speed up progress.

Whereas the city-state is pursuing these initiatives with like-minded international locations, it’s not discounting the position of the US; even when America is just not able to act instantly, sustaining momentum is essential.

Alongside this, the city-state is main pathfinding initiatives with smaller, trade-dependent economies, such because the Way forward for Funding and Commerce Partnership.

These initiatives purpose to uphold a rules-based buying and selling system whereas experimenting with improvements like standardising rules, facilitating funding flows, and leveraging know-how for smoother cross-border enterprise operations. Over time, such initiatives might be multilateralised beneath the WTO framework, reinforcing international commerce norms.

On investments, Singapore stays actively engaged globally, together with within the US, Europe, and Asia. Whereas macroeconomic dangers have elevated—notably within the US—the city-state continues to again firms with robust progress potential and technological dynamism.

Europe, particularly, is seen as a key strategic companion within the rising multipolar order. Singapore is exploring methods to hyperlink commerce groupings such because the CPTPP (the Complete and Progressive Settlement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) with the EU and deepen EU-ASEAN cooperation, protecting important parts of world commerce. These strikes purpose to preserve international commerce arteries open and create new ones, countering the rising fragmentation of the worldwide system.

Domestically, Wong emphasised that international uncertainty and the rising anxieties of younger persons are intently linked. The world over, from China to Europe, youth are expressing unease about their futures.

In Singapore, the federal government is targeted on assuring the following technology, offering them with confidence and alternatives to chart their very own paths in a world that’s much less steady and extra chaotic than in earlier a long time. Political and social insurance policies are being formed to assist this goal, recognising that inside resilience is as essential as exterior technique in navigating the brand new international order.

We’re in an uncomfortable place… and we should brace ourselves for extra turbulence forward… I believe we can’t afford to only anticipate issues to occur or hope in some way that issues magically will fall in place. We’ve to take actions now.

• Watch Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s full interview with the Monetary Instances right here.

Featured Picture Credit score: Prime Minister’s Workplace