by Calculated Danger on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by June 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in Could, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are largely flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly proceed to say no over the subsequent yr as rents for current tenants proceed to extend.
The second graph exhibits PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing over the past 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are above the Fed’s goal on a 3-month foundation.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Value Index: 2.5%
Core PCE Costs: 2.6%
Core minus Housing: 2.4%
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