by Calculated Threat on 6/27/2025 08:55:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by Could 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in Could, down from 4.0% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are largely flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly proceed to say no over the subsequent yr as rents for present tenants proceed to extend.
The second graph reveals PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing over the past 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are under the Fed’s goal on a 3-month foundation.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Worth Index: 1.1%
Core PCE Costs: 1.7%
Core minus Housing: 1.1%
There seems to be some residual seasonality, particularly in Q1.
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