by Calculated Threat on 7/24/2025 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau stories New Dwelling Gross sales in June have been at a seasonally adjusted annual fee (SAAR) of 627 thousand.
The earlier three months have been revised down, mixed.
Gross sales of latest single-family homes in June 2025 have been at a seasonally-adjusted annual fee of 627,000, based on
estimates launched collectively immediately by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Division of Housing and City Improvement.
That is 0.6 % above the Might 2025 fee of 623,000, and is 6.6 % under the June 2024 fee of 671,000.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The primary graph exhibits New Dwelling Gross sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the present gross sales fee.
New dwelling gross sales have been under pre-pandemic ranges.
The second graph exhibits New Dwelling Months of Provide.
The months of provide elevated in June to 9.8 months from 9.7 months in Might.
The all-time document excessive was 12.2 months of provide in January 2009. The all-time document low was 3.3 months in August 2020.
That is effectively above the highest of the traditional vary (about 4 to six months of provide is regular).
“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of latest homes on the market on the finish of June 2025 was 511,000. That is 1.2 % above the Might 2025 estimate of 505,000, and is 8.5 % (±5.4 %) above the June 2024 estimate of 471,000.
This represents a provide of 9.8 months on the present gross sales fee. The months’ provide is 1.0 % above the Might 2025 estimate of 9.7 months, and is 16.7 % above the June 2024 estimate of 8.4 months.”
Gross sales have been under expectations of 650 thousand SAAR and gross sales for the three earlier months have been revised down, mixed. I will have extra later immediately.
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