Nationwide Home Worth Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

by Calculated Threat on 12/30/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller launched the month-to-month Dwelling Worth Indices for October (“October” is a 3-month common of August, September and October closing costs).

This launch consists of costs for 20 particular person cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the month-to-month Nationwide index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Data Annual Acquire in October 2025

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. Nationwide Dwelling Worth NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual acquire
for October, up from a 1.3% rise within the earlier month.

• Regional divergence persists as Midwestern and Northeastern markets, led by Chicago (5.8%)
and New York (5.0%), outpaced Solar Belt cities like Tampa (–4.2%) and Phoenix (–1.5%).

• Sixteen of 20 markets declined month-over-month in October, signaling broad stagnation as
excessive mortgage charges weigh on affordability and suppress value momentum.
…
“October’s knowledge present the housing market settling right into a a lot slower gear, with the Nationwide Composite
Index up solely about 1.4% 12 months over 12 months – among the many weakest performances since mid-2023,” mentioned
Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Mounted Revenue Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow
Jones Indices. “This determine is actually unchanged from September’s 1.3% annual acquire and
represents lower than a 3rd of the 5.1% common residence value enhance recorded in 2024. Nationwide residence
costs additionally proceed to lag client inflation, as October’s CPI is estimated round 3.1% (based mostly on a
provisional index the U.S. Treasury introduced as a result of federal knowledge shutdown) – roughly 1.8
proportion factors increased than the most recent housing appreciation. In actual phrases, that hole implies a slight
decline in inflation-adjusted residence values over the previous 12 months.

“Regional efficiency underscores a placing geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all main
markets with a 5.8% annual value acquire, adopted by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. These
historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern metros have sustained strong progress whilst broader
circumstances soften. Against this, Tampa residence costs are down 4.2% 12 months over 12 months – the steepest drop
among the many 20 cities, marking Tampa’s twelfth consecutive month of annual declines. Different former high-
flyers within the Solar Belt are equally struggling: Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%) all
stay in detrimental territory. It’s a stark reversal from the pandemic increase, because the markets that have been
as soon as ‘pandemic darlings’ are actually seeing the sharpest corrections whereas extra conventional metros
proceed to put up modest features.
…
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. Nationwide Dwelling Worth NSA Index, protecting all 9 U.S. census
divisions, reported a 1.4% annual acquire for October, up from a 1.3% rise within the earlier month. The ten-
Metropolis Composite confirmed an annual enhance of 1.9%, down from a 2.0% enhance within the earlier month.
The 20-Metropolis Composite posted a year-over-year enhance of 1.3%, down from a 1.4% enhance within the
earlier month.
…
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. Nationwide, 10-Metropolis Composite, and 20-Metropolis Composite Indices
continued to report detrimental month-over-month modifications in October, posting a -0.3% drop for the 20-
Metropolis Composite Index and -0.2% decreases for each the 10-Metropolis Composite and U.S. Nationwide Indices.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. Nationwide Index reported a month-to-month enhance of 0.4% and each the
10-Metropolis Composite and 20-Metropolis Composite Indices posted month-over-month features of 0.3%.
emphasis added

Click on on graph for bigger picture.

The primary graph reveals the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and Nationwide indices (the Composite 20 was began in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in October (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.3% (SA) in October.

The Nationwide index was up 0.4% (SA) in October.

The second graph reveals the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.3% year-over-year.

The Nationwide index NSA was up 1.4% year-over-year.

Annual value modifications have been near expectations.  I will have extra later.