The Mexican financial system grew greater than anticipated within the second quarter of 2025, increasing 0.7% in comparison with the earlier three-month interval, in response to preliminary knowledge revealed by the nationwide statistics company INEGI on Wednesday.
The expansion charge was 0.3 proportion factors greater than the 0.4% median forecast of 13 analysts surveyed by Reuters.
The GDP enhance got here after the Mexican financial system grew 0.2% on a sequential foundation within the first quarter of the yr, and contracted 0.7% within the last quarter of 2024.
INEGI additionally reported that the financial system grew 1.2% yearly in seasonally adjusted phrases within the second quarter of the yr. Unadjusted knowledge confirmed a 0.1% annual development charge for the three-month interval between April and June.
Gabriela Siller, director of financial evaluation at Banco Base, stated on X that the INEGI knowledge reveals that it’s “clear that Mexico will not be in recession.”
“However that doesn’t imply the financial system is doing properly,” she added.
“There may be nonetheless a danger of recession for Mexico, particularly if the USA begins to strictly implement tariffs or if extra sectors are added to sectoral tariffs,” Siller wrote in a separate put up.
The publication of the preliminary development knowledge for the second quarter of 2025 comes two days earlier than the USA is scheduled to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico, separate from sectoral tariffs that presently apply to metal, aluminum, vehicles and auto components.
Manufacturing and companies drive sequential development in Q2
INEGI’s knowledge reveals that the secondary sector, which incorporates manufacturing and development, grew 0.8% on a sequential foundation within the second quarter.
Mexico’s export income shot up 10.6% in June, with manufacturing main the best way
The tertiary, or companies, sector expanded 0.7% in comparison with the primary quarter, whereas the first sector contracted 1.3%.
The newspaper El Financiero reported that the first sector contraction was associated to the U.S. ban on livestock imports from Mexico as a result of screwworm danger.
Regardless of U.S. tariffs, Mexico’s export income — largely generated by manufacturing — continued to develop within the first half of 2025, rising 4.4% yearly.
Siller stated on X that exports are “boosting” the Mexican financial system.
In annual seasonally adjusted phrases, the first sector grew 4.5% within the second quarter, whereas the tertiary sector expanded 1.7%. The secondary sector contracted 0.2% yearly in Q2.
IMF raises 2025 forecast for Mexico
Earlier than the publication of INEGI’s Q2 development knowledge, the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 forecast for financial development in Mexico to 0.2% from a earlier projection of a 0.3% contraction.
Mexico solely main financial system projected to shrink in 2025, IMF report reveals
The IMF’s up to date forecast was included in its World Financial Outlook Replace report, which was revealed on Tuesday.
The IMF is predicting a 1.4% development charge in Mexico in 2026. That forecast is unchanged from the IMF’s prediction in April.
A 0.2% development charge in Mexico in 2025 would characterize a big slowdown from the 1.5% growth recorded in 2024.
The Mexican financial system is presently dealing with vital uncertainty on account of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff insurance policies.
The Mexican authorities has been trying to achieve a take care of the Trump administration to stave off the 30% tariff on account of take impact this Friday. As of Wednesday morning, no deal had been reached.
With stories from El Financiero and Reuters
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