Manufacturing employment, hours, capability utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing manufacturing (Fed index) flat since March.
Determine 1: Manufacturing employment, all workers (brown), manufacturing mixture hours (inexperienced), manufacturing manufacturing (blue), actual worth added in manufacturing (blue bars), all in logs, 2025M01=0; manufacturing capability utilization (daring black line, proper scale). Combination hours calculated by multiplying common weekly hours occasions employment of manufacturing and nonsupervisory staff. Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, and creator’s calculations.
Discover that since we’re indexing to 2025M01=0, the truth that it’s troublesome to see the worth added sequence during the last two quarters signifies that worth added has been primarily flat over that interval.
These are all backwards trying indicators. The ISM manufacturing PMI – new orders element doesn’t look too promising. And all that is earlier than the tariffs take full impact, and retaliation (apart from China).
Supply: ISM, accessed 8/7/2025.
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