US jobless claims fell for a sixth straight week, dropping to a 3-month low and signaling labor market power. “The weekly jobless claims give Fed officers no cowl by any means if they’re significantly considering of reducing rates of interest at subsequent week’s assembly,” mentioned Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
US financial exercise strengthened once more in June, in keeping with the Chicago Nat’l Exercise Index. The month-to-month index rose to its highest stage in three months, though the present studying nonetheless displays a below-trend tempo of exercise.
Gross sales of latest properties edged greater in June, however fell 6.6% vs. the year-ago stage. Stock continued to rise: the seasonally adjusted 511,000 provide of latest properties on the market rose 8.5% from a yr earlier.
US corporations are shouldering many of the invoice for greater tariffs. “US companies are nonetheless footing many of the tariff invoice, having but to move greater than a fraction of the tariff value on to shoppers,” mentioned Preston Caldwell, chief US economist at Morningstar.
Economists count on client costs to rise by way of finish of the yr resulting from tariffs, stories Vox. “By the point we get to the top of August, you’ll form of look again and it’ll seem that directionally, the individuals who mentioned tariffs would enhance costs over the summer season had been proper,” mentioned Daniel Hornung, a senior fellow at MIT and former deputy director of the Nationwide Financial Council underneath the Biden administration.
US financial exercise “accelerates” in July, in keeping with PMI survey information. “The flash PMI information indicated that the US economic system grew at a sharply elevated charge firstly of the third quarter, per the economic system increasing at a 2.3% annualized charge,” mentioned Chris Williamson, Chief Enterprise Economist at S&P World Market Intelligence. “That represents a marked enchancment on the 1.3% charge signaled by the survey for the second quarter.”
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