Macro Briefing: 24 October 2025

Current-home gross sales elevated by 1.5% month-over-month in September, in response to knowledge from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors. “As anticipated, falling mortgage charges are lifting house gross sales,” stated NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Enhancing housing affordability can also be contributing to the rise in gross sales.” Mortgage charges have fallen to the bottom degree in a 12 months, beneath 6.2%.

President Trump cancels commerce talks with Canada. The US has imposed a 35% levy on many Canadian imports, together with particular person tariffs focusing on specific industries like automobile and metal manufacturing.

Goal is reducing 1,800 jobs, its first main layoffs in a decade. The job cuts signify an roughly 8% discount in Goal’s company workforce.

Synthetic intelligence-related funding spending has “saved the financial system out of a recession,” says BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof, however…

The continuing US authorities shutdown will develop into a headwind for the financial system if it rolls on, economists advise. “A authorities shutdown can be an extra headwind that would additional weaken the underlying basis of the US financial system,” says Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting agency EY. If the shutdown continues into the vacation buying season that begins after Thanksgiving, “a recession will develop into an actual risk as it would weigh on already fragile shopper, enterprise and investor confidence,” predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

TMC Analysis’s Fed funds mannequin continues to point that financial coverage stays reasonably tight. The efficient Fed funds charge has been holding regular lately at roughly one proportion level above the impartial estimate. The hole leaves room for the Fed to chop its goal charge at subsequent week’s coverage assembly whereas nonetheless leaving coverage with a hawkish bias.