June, Second Quarter 2025 Assessment and Outlook

Govt Abstract

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended Q2at new all-time highs
• Industrials and Financials at new highs alerts financial power
• U.S. Greenback Index (DXY) with the largest 6M decline in 16 years (2009)
• S&P 500 company EPS is forecasted to develop 5% in Q2 2025
• 9 of 11 large-cap sectors are constructive YTD
• Excessive beta vs. low beta close to new highs

This 12 months has been nothing wanting a wild experience for U.S. equities, beginning with the S&P 500 declining greater than 21% from its February excessive into the low reached through the second week of April. Tariff uncertainty drove the early levels of the selloff, whereas the administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement brought about essentially the most excessive volatility and draw back momentum.  Due partially to stresses within the plumbing of the monetary system, the administration rapidly reversed course by suspending “reciprocal tariffs” for 90-days. Over the remining 12 weeks in Q2, a broad V-shaped rally culminated in new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 supported with a management profile (Expertise, Industrials, Financials) signaling a wholesome financial system.

After a 6.3% complete return in Might, the S&P 500 rose 5.1% in June for its first consecutive month-to-month positive aspects since September 2024. Its 11.7% complete return for Might and June was the perfect two month return since December 2023. The modest 0.7% decline in April masked violent volatility and extensive ranges leading to a 13.8% drawdown from the March shut, the largest month-to-month decline since March 2020 (Covid). Equally, the 17.8% high-low vary was the widest since April 2020.

From a technical perspective seen within the under month-to-month interval chart of the S&P 500, the April low got here inside 0.3% from the prior cyclical excessive reached in January 2022, considered as a traditional “retest” of an anticipated help degree. April’s open-close vary completed held one other help from the rising trendline connecting the 2020 and 2022 cyclical lows. The following rally in Might and June to new highs confirmed April’s bullish reversal sample (dragonfly doji).

Beneath the hood of the U.S. fairness benchmarks, the rebound off the April lows and total quarterly efficiency was led by large-cap development (+17.8% Q2) and small-cap development (+12% Q2).

On the large-cap sector degree, Expertise (+23.7% Q2) and Communications (+18.5%) led the outperformance whereas Vitality (-8.6% Q2) and Healthcare (-7.2% Q2) deeply underperformed. Notably, Vitality and Healthcare had been the highest performing sectors in Q1. 

Together with Expertise and Communications, new highs had been reached by the Industrials and Financials sectors, which can recommend the financial system is stronger and holding up higher than anticipated amidst the widespread uncertainty.

In related trend, Expertise (+22.8% Q2) was the highest performing sector amongst the small caps, adopted by Industrials (+15.4% Q2) and Supplies +13% Q2).  REITs (-2.2% Q2) and Staples (-2% Q2) had been the laggards.

Charges and the U.S. Greenback have been a tailwind for the transfer larger in equities, gold, and bitcoin. The UST 10yr Yield declined 31bps in the1H of 2025 and stays 76 foundation factors (bps) under the cycle excessive (5.02%) reached in late 2023. The decline within the buck has been extra dramatic with the U.S. Greenback Index (DXY) declining 10.7% in 1H 2025. This marks its worst first-half decline for the reason that Nineteen Seventies, and its worst rolling six-month decline since August 2009 (-11.2%) and February 2004 (-11%).  

In Q2, gold rose 5% whereas bitcoin surged 30%. In the primary half of 2025, gold rose 26% whereas bitcoin gained 15%.

Confirming the bullish reversal all through Q2 is the relative power of the S&P 500 Excessive Beta Index vs. the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, which ended June close to report ranges.

Company earnings season is across the nook. In keeping with FactSet, the estimated S&P 500 earnings development fee (YoY) for Q2 2025 is presently 5%, which is down from expectations of 9.4% at the beginning of Q2. Q2 2025 S&P 500 revenues are anticipated to develop 4.2%, which is down from expectations of 4.7% at the beginning of Q2. The S&P 500’s ahead 12-month PE ratio is 21.9 versus the 5yr and 10yr averages of 19.9 and 18.4, respectively.

Wanting Forward

Markets will deal with a spread of uncertainties into Q3 as commerce tensions, geopolitical battle and financial crosscurrents converge. The July 9 expiration of the reciprocal tariff postponement looms giant, with few commerce offers secured and expanded tariffs now focusing on client items. Whereas tariffs could possibly be additional postponed previous July ninth, uncertainty persists. The Fed faces a fragile balancing act given the persistent development larger in persevering with claims and inflation threat. At present, the Fed and the bond market are in sync and forecast two 25bp fee cuts by 12 months finish 2025.    

The data contained herein is supplied for informational and academic functions solely, and nothing contained herein ought to be construed as funding recommendation, both on behalf of a selected safety or an total funding technique. All data contained herein is obtained by Nasdaq from sources believed by Nasdaq to be correct and dependable. Nevertheless, all data is supplied “as is” with out guarantee of any variety. ADVICE FROM SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.