This text first appeared on Pacific Discussion board and is republished with permission. Learn the unique right here.
The Philippines and India have witnessed an upward trajectory of their bilateral partnership amid rising uncertainty over Indo-Pacific safety structure introduced by China’s expansionism.
Whereas the Philippines’ safety alliance with the USA stays, there’s an ongoing push in Manila for a extra multi-aligned international coverage, getting ready for surprising shifts.
The Philippines’ rising strategic cooperation with India demonstrates this multi-alignment, and extra sturdy bilateral ties would complement US pursuits in preserving the regional rules-based order.
Tracing the expansion
The Philippines-India partnership is turning into a strategically important relationship grounded in democratic values, shared safety considerations, and converging visions for a free and open Indo-Pacific. This evolution displays a deliberate recalibration in each international locations’ international insurance policies.
For the Philippines, more and more cautious of China’s maritime assertiveness within the South China Sea, the seek for dependable safety companions has intensified. For India, dedicated to its Act East Coverage and a extra proactive Indo-Pacific function, strengthening ties with ASEAN states is each well timed and important.
Maturity in bilateral ties started in 2016 beneath former President Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022), when Manila sought to veer away from its US alliance to appease China and achieve financial concessions. Moreover, by downplaying the 2016 Arbitral Award, Duterte hoped to forge extra steady relations with Beijing within the South China Sea.
Nonetheless, such efforts didn’t yield important financial advantages; they emboldened China’s expansionist ambitions within the West Philippine Sea—as Manila calls the a part of the South China Sea encompassing its 200-nautical-mile unique financial zone.
To handle this strategic mismanagement, Manila determined to work with non-traditional, like-minded companions that may play a task within the Philippines’ safety.
This diversification coverage allowed the Philippines and India to acknowledge the utility of their like-minded partnership. Notable developments that came about included the Philippines’ buy of BrahMos supersonic missiles, extra reciprocal high-level visits, and elevated maritime exercise corresponding to joint workout routines and goodwill visits.
In Manila, there was obvious willingness to embrace India in its safety calculations. This complemented India’s intent to develop into a extra noticeable participant in rising strategic dynamics in Southeast Asia.
Commerce and funding between the 2 nations, though nonetheless modest (roughly $3 billion in 2024), are slowly gaining momentum. India’s strengths in prescribed drugs, data know-how, and fintech align nicely with the Philippines’ growth wants. The digital economic system and renewable vitality sectors, particularly, supply promising avenues for collaboration.
But, this financial partnership stays under-leveraged—one thing each governments are eager to vary.
Institutionalizing the partnership
When President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took workplace in 2022, he expressed intent to not solely keep constructive momentum for the Manila-New Delhi partnership however strengthen it additional to higher adapt to the altering strategic setting of the Indo-Pacific.
Accordingly, the Philippines and India have pursued a extra multifaceted, institutionalized bilateral partnership. Essentially the most seen space of cooperation facilities on maritime safety and protection cooperation. This mirrored the Marcos Jr administration’s prioritization of safety of its sovereignty and sovereign rights as China intensifies belligerent maneuvers within the West Philippine Sea.
India likewise intends to bolster its strategic presence in Southeast Asia amid the seek for various sources of financial and safety cooperation, hedging towards the uncertainties attributable to US–China competitors. Moreover, since 2018, India has develop into extra vocal about how China’s maritime unilateralism immediately challenges the rules of worldwide regulation.
Consequently, since 2022, there have been elevated Manila-New Delhi maritime security-related actions aimed toward deepening and institutionalizing their partnership. First developments included signing a memorandum of understanding for cooperation between the Philippine and Indian coast guards in August 2023.
An elevation in protection dialogue adopted; the fifth assembly of the India-Philippines Joint Protection Cooperation Committee, held in September 2024, was co-chaired for the primary time by the protection secretaries. Moreover, each nations held their first Observe 1 maritime safety dialogue in December 2024.
Furthermore, as each nations intention to enhance joint preparedness and interoperability, the function of capacity-building can be gaining floor; Manila is at the moment negotiating with India to buy the Akash surface-to-air weapon system. Diplomatic engagement has saved tempo.
Excessive-level visits, common dialogues beneath the Joint Fee on Bilateral Cooperation, and collaboration in ASEAN-led platforms level to a maturing relationship. Importantly, each international locations emphasize a rules-based worldwide order and the sanctity of worldwide regulation—rules more and more examined in at this time’s contested maritime areas.
The Philippines and India are additionally exploring extra methods to broaden the bilateral partnership. When President Marcos Jr met Indian Minister of State for Exterior Affairs Pabitra Margherita in January, he expressed openness to elevating bilateral ties, indicating Manila’s rising significance to the Philippines-India partnership.
Manila has additionally shared plans to pursue cooperation with New Delhi on essential minerals like nickel, given their overreliance on the Chinese language market as an export vacation spot. This opens extra alternatives for India to develop into extra concerned in Southeast Asia whereas enhancing its partnership with the Philippines.
The human connection is rising, too. Filipino college students learning in India beneath authorities scholarships, the recognition of yoga and Indian tradition within the Philippines, and a small however vibrant Indian diaspora all contribute to a extra natural, people-centric partnership.
These tender energy linkages present a sturdy basis for bilateral goodwill past the corridors of energy.
Why it issues to Washington
Below the Trump administration, there are two interrelated themes taking middle stage in Washington’s international coverage calculations. First, the way forward for US safety pursuits lies within the evolving dynamics of Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
Second, China is essentially the most essential problem to Washington’s pursuit of strategic aims within the area and the broader worldwide system. Within the Indo-Pacific, China not solely enjoys a geographic benefit but additionally continues to consolidate.
Dr. Shristi Pukhrem (shristipukhrem@indiafoundation.in) is deputy director (lecturers & analysis) at India Basis. Dr Pukhrem’s analysis areas cowl India-ASEAN relations, India’s bilateral relations with Southeast Asian international locations and the Act East Coverage with a bigger concentrate on the Indo-Pacific area.
Don McLain Gill (don.gill@dlsu.edu.ph) is a Manila-based geopolitical analyst, writer and lecturer on the Division of Worldwide Research, De La Salle College. He’s additionally an Indo-Pacific analysis fellow on the Asia Pacific Basis of Canada.
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