From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP progress is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.
These estimates primarily based on a VAR(2) utilizing annual information, internet unauthorized immigration as a % of the previous-year U.S. inhabitants, annual progress charge of nonfarm payroll employment, the PCE annual inflation charge, and yearly GDP progress.
Supply: Orrenius et al. (2025).
PCE inflation is 15 bps and 6 bps larger in 2026 and 2027 beneath baseline.
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