Specialists have expressed doubts that the US’s expired African Progress and Alternative Act (AGOA) will obtain a recent lease of life regardless of persistent reviews that the Trump administration is contemplating an extension.
AGOA, which has supplied eligible sub-Saharan African nations with duty-free entry to the US since its enactment in 2000, was allowed to run out on September 30, ending commerce preferences for 32 international locations.
In late September, South Africa’s commerce minister Parks Tau mentioned he was optimistic that AGOA can be renewed. His workplace prompt that there was “broad assist for the renewal of AGOA (the African Progress and Alternative Act) in Congress throughout the aisle”.
Days earlier, Massad Boulos, Trump’s senior adviser for Africa, raised hopes when he mentioned the administration “agreed with the targets” of Agoa however mentioned there are “typically points with among the particulars or the way it’s being executed.”
However Gustavo de Carvalho, senior researcher on the South African Institute of Worldwide Affairs, says the political route of journey within the US suggests {that a} renewal is unlikely.
“The US is looking out to safe higher offers for themselves and are participating in bilateral negotiations with different international locations. When you take into account their overseas coverage, AGOA doesn’t actually match the narrative.”
There was no public signal from Washington DC that the now-lapsed act can be renewed, regardless of the insistence of Tau’s workplace in late September that “the consensus means that AGOA could also be renewed for a short-period of between one-to-three years to permit Congress to introduce adjustments and enhancements to the programme.”
De Carvalho added that there seemed to be confusion over whom to foyer within the US for an extension of the act.
“There may be quite a lot of confusion on who calls the pictures, who actually drives among the considering, who do you speak to in Washington? How does one perceive their entry level, as a result of the normal channels of communication are now not there.”
Former South African diplomat and geopolitical marketing consultant Mohamed Cassimjee says that in any case, an extension is unlikely to result in a extra beneficial deal for African international locations.
“Based mostly on the present transactional strategy within the US, if they’re going to renew it, we could ask how it will be recrafted in the way in which to suit the America First agenda.”
Mitigating the prices of AGOA’s cancellation
The Worldwide Commerce Centre has calculated the prices of AGOA’s expiry. Throughout all sectors, tariff measures launched in 2025 are estimated to cut back projected exports of AGOA beneficiaries by about 8% by 2029. The expiry of AGOA provides an extra decline of 0.6 share factors, or $189m. $138m of that can be accounted for by reductions in exports of attire and textile merchandise to the US, that are anticipated to register a decline of 9.7% by 2029 on account of the top of AGOA, by far the best affect on any sector. Skins, leather-based, merchandise thereof and footwear (-3.3%), processed meals and animal feed (-1.6%) and automobiles (-1.3%) are the subsequent most affected.
Requested about how South Africa can climate AGOA’s demise, Cassimjee maintained that South Africa should push to diversify its markets, whereas additionally persevering with to have interaction with the US.
“Commerce diversification is paramount, however they need to proceed to have interaction with the US. South Africa’s energy is its capacity to have interaction, and thru engagement there are a lot better outcomes. The president should proceed to be a robust ambassador for the nation. In these 3 ways South Africa can proceed.”
Brandon Heimstra, founding father of Home of Macadamias, an organization specialising in premium macadamia nut merchandise that exports from South Africa to the US, mentioned that tariffs are having an affect however that promoting branded merchandise slightly than unprocessed crops was a solution to proceed its attraction to US shoppers.
“A 30% tariff in my case doesn’t imply you lose a 30% margin. The vast majority of my prices are literally contained in the US when the product lands right here, with logistics, advertising and different bills. The price of manufacturing in South Africa is comparatively low cost.”
“After all, the tariffs aren’t supreme, nevertheless it’s not devastating for us. I believe it’s partly as a result of now we have a model, and we’re promoting an finish product right here so we get quite a lot of the worth seize, whereas we might have been impacted much more if we have been promoting a uncooked materials.”
Heimstra mentioned that they have been nonetheless attempting to mitigate the elevated prices by coming to agreements with South Africa nut suppliers.
“We’re working with suppliers domestically, a few of them have come to the get together and lowered prices, which assist us.”
Tilt in the direction of Africa
David Luke, a director on the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa on the London College of Economics, means that AGOA’s demise is perhaps a chance for African nations to spice up regional commerce.
“Within the quick time period, enterprise goes to be hit by shedding the market, however in the long run it might change the behavior of exporting out the continent to wanting on the inside market. As you alter that behavior, most of the stuff you see as constraints reminiscent of transport infrastructure will grow to be enterprise alternatives for others to reply to.”
“I don’t assume any of us count on a shift to the African market in a single day, however it is going to occur step-by-step.”
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