Convention Board: Financial Confidence Up (a Little)

The Convention Board right now:

The Convention Board Shopper Confidence Index® improved by 2.0 factors in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by 2.2 factors). The Current Scenario Index—primarily based on shoppers’ evaluation of present enterprise and labor market situations—fell 1.5 factors to 131.5. The Expectations Index—primarily based on shoppers’ short-term outlook for revenue, enterprise, and labor market situations—rose 4.5 factors to 74.4. However expectations remained beneath the brink of 80 that sometimes indicators a recession forward for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary outcomes was July 20, 2025.

“Shopper confidence has stabilized since Might, rebounding from April’s plunge, however stays beneath final yr’s heady ranges,” 

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Determine 1 exhibits the Convention Board’s measure vs. the MIchigan measure, and a textual content primarily based information sentiment index.

Determine 1: College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment (blue), Convention Board Shopper Confidence (tan), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Every day Information Sentiment Index (gentle inexperienced) , all demeaned and normalized by customary deviation (for the 2021-2025M02 pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Every day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The Information Index statement for July is thru 7/27/2025. Orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration. Orange dashed line at “Liberation Day” in 2025M04. Supply: U.Mich by way of FRED, Convention Board by way of Investing.com, SF Fed, and writer’s calculations.

The Convention Board measure is TWO customary deviations decrease than November 2024, and ONE customary deviation beneath January 2025.

Word the excellence between present situations vs. anticipated.

Supply: Convention Board, accessed 7/29/2025.

As CB observes, the expectations measure stays beneath the recession threshold.

Lastly, as for particular person households’ views relating to their very own anticipated state of affairs sooner or later, this determine is related.

Supply: Convention Board, accessed 7/29/2025.

Whereas the “higher”-“worse” differential has shifted to barely extra optimistic relative the nadir in April, it’s considerably beneath the January 2025 excessive level.