Cigarette And FMCG Shine Whereas Agri And Paper Enterprise Weigh Down

ITC – India’s largest cigarette producer – reported a gentle June-ended quarter. Although the working revenue was barely under Avenue estimates, brokerages have continued to take care of their constructive stance on ITC.

The corporate reported a quantity progress of round 6-6.5% in its core cigarette enterprise, which isn’t solely at a multi-quarter excessive but additionally forward of many different FMCG friends. Brokerages anticipate the second half of the monetary 12 months 2026 to be higher on the again of demand restoration and decrease uncooked materials price.

Within the Nifty FMCG index, ITC has probably the most variety of ‘purchase’ scores with a return potential of 20%. Of the 39 analysts monitoring the corporate, 37 have a ‘purchase’ ranking with a consensus goal worth of Rs 498. Here is what brokerages say:

Macquarie

• Keep Outperform with TP of Rs 500

• Inline Q1; wholesome cigarette volumes; paper weak

• 6.5% cigarette quantity progress and blend enchancment partly offsetting leaf tobacco inflation

• ITC sees indicators of city restoration in FMCG and noticed correction in leaf tobacco prices in present crop cycle

• Continued weak spot in paper is regarding, the demand restoration throughout cigarettes/ FMCG make us constructive on progress

Jefferies

• Keep Purchase with TP of Rs 535

• Cigarette quantity progress accelerated to a multi-quarter excessive of >6%

• Quantity progress continued to be in extra of most of the FMCG friends

• Section Ebit margins continued to development down though Ebit was simply inline

• Different segments reported decrease than anticipated Ebit primarily as a consequence of margin stress

• General Ebitda progress was muted at 3%, a slight miss to estimates

MS

• Keep Obese with TP of Rs 500

• Broadly in line; enhancing tendencies

• Cigarettes: Differentiated and premium choices proceed to carry out nicely

• Paper: affected by subdued realisations, low-priced provides from world markets and surge in home wooden costs

HSBC

• Keep Purchase with TP of Rs 510

• Cigarettes steady, different elements muted

• Q1 income beat by 10%, Ebitda 3% miss on agribusiness

• Core cigarettes, FMCG enterprise efficiency in line

• Proceed to love ITC’s valuation; steady quantity progress in cigarettes and scaling of the FMCG enterprise

Citi

• Keep Purchase; lower TP to Rs 500 from Rs 520

• Cigarette quantity sturdy; revenue impacted by competitors, inflation

• Different FMCG enterprise witnessing progress enchancment

• See continued regular cigarette quantity progress and an eventual margin restoration from FY27E onwards

Goldman Sachs

• Keep Purchase with TP of Rs 490

• Income progress enhancing, margins poised for restoration in H2

• FMCG progress improves, margin restoration possible in H2

• Paper enterprise margins weaken additional, however more likely to have bottomed

Nirmal Bang

• Improve to Purchase from Impartial; hike TP to Rs 485 from Rs 465

• Cigarette quantity progress wholesome, valuations cheap

• See EPS progress between FY25 and FY27 to be round 7.5% Vs 2.6%/5.2% seen in final 2/5 years

• With enhancing earnings prospects and enchancment in ROCEs, consider 20% premium to the 5-year common a number of is justified

Nuvama

• Keep Purchase; hike TP to Rs 540 from Rs 532

• Progress intact; margins subdued

• Agri and cigarettes phase drive progress, margin drag persists

• Keep constructive on ITC given early tendencies of city revival and broad-based progress throughout segments

PL Capital

• Keep Purchase; lower TP to Rs 530 from Rs 538

• Q1: Cigarette volumes up 6.5%, broad-based margin stress throughout segments

• FMCG exhibits QoQ uptick; paper margins stress possible until H1

• Imagine ITC gives a positive danger reward and a dividend yield of three.7%

PhillipCapital

• Keep Purchase with TP of Rs 480

• Multi-engine progress on monitor regardless of price pressures

• See early indicators of easing in leaf tobacco costs

• This augurs nicely for the phase margin in H2FY26

• Count on a significant enchancment in each income and margins for the FMCG enterprise

Kotak Securities

• Keep Add; lower TP to Rs 470 from Rs 480

• Delicate quarter on anticipated traces; H2 outlook higher

• Cigarette phase—good income progress offset by margin stress

• ITC famous early indicators of a restoration in city consumption within the quarter

• Profitability possible to enhance in H2FY26E