A employees member prepares for the arrival of Chinese language Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang and EU Govt Vice-President for a Clear, Simply and Aggressive Transition, Teresa Ribera throughout China-EU Sixth Excessive Degree Atmosphere and Local weather Dialogue (HECD) on the Diaoyutai State Visitor Home in Beijing on July 14, 2025.
Wang Zhao | Afp | Getty Photos
China and the European Union will maintain a top-level assembly in Beijing on Thursday, whereas the U.S. is making their already tense relationship extra sophisticated.
Clashes over commerce and financial coverage, technological points and protection and safety have been commonplace between China and the EU — and tensions have just lately been heating up.
For instance, the EU imposed restrictions on Chinese language firms collaborating in public tenders for medical units within the bloc, prompting China to reply with countermeasures.
Largely, the pressure between the 2 buying and selling companions is linked to issues about how home economies and corporations could possibly be impacted by imports.
The high-stakes summit, which is the twenty fifth between the companions and marks 50 years of bilateral relations, was due to this fact already happening underneath lower than superb circumstances.
Initially scheduled to happen in Brussels, the assembly was then lower from two days to 1 — which was extensively understood as one other signal of fragile EU-China ties.
“Relations between Brussels and Beijing are notably tense,” Jörn Fleck, senior director on the Europe Heart on the Atlantic Council, instructed CNBC.
“The EU and China have extra to argue about than they agree on, even when neither facet can afford to let the connection deteriorate a lot additional given the worldwide outlook and their respective financial positions,” Fleck mentioned.
The U.S. as a complicating issue
After which, there may be U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff coverage to take care of.
“Largely irreconcilable EU-China variations will severely constrain potential cooperation, regardless of mutual curiosity in countering a few of President Trump’s insurance policies — led by US commerce measures and unilateralism,” Emre Peker, director for Europe at Eurasia Group, instructed CNBC.
The U.S.’ actions may even set off a worsening of EU-China relations, Peker mentioned. Brussels, for instance, may sharpen its place on measures concentrating on China if the U.S. places strain on the bloc to take action as a part of commerce talks, he continued.
“The extent of Brussels’s alignment with Washington on provide chains, export controls, and different points will sign the extent of EU frustration with China — and affect their relationship,” Peker mentioned.
The EU and China collectively account for nearly 30% of world commerce, in accordance with the European Council. When taking items and providers under consideration, EU-China commerce was valued at over 845 billion euros ($989 billion) in 2024.
President of the European Fee Ursula von der Leyen speaking to media on the finish of a bilateral assembly within the Berlaymont, the EU Fee headquarter on July 13, 2025 in Brussels, Belgium.
Thierry Monasse | Getty Photos Information | Getty Photos
Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow on the Freeman Chair in China Research at CSIS, instructed CNBC that China might attempt to affect the EU as regards to its talks with the U.S.
“Chinese language leaders might press their European counterparts on the EU’s ongoing commerce negotiations with america, urging them to reject any measures that might drawback China,” Levin mentioned.
The EU and U.S. have to this point not agreed on a commerce framework, with talks ongoing because the bloc faces a 30% tariff on most of its exports from Aug. 1.
China and the U.S. in the meantime in June mentioned that they had come to an settlement, which covers tech rules and provisions round hotly contested uncommon earths, which are sometimes utilized in the automotive, protection and vitality sectors.
Moreover, Levin additionally famous that Trump’s extra adversarial method to the EU might complicate the bloc’s capacity to counter China.
“It will likely be tough for the EU to face as much as China’s financial coercion whereas additionally managing largescale financial coercion from its American allies,” she mentioned.
Excessive stakes, low expectations
Analyst expectations for the summit seem comparatively low.
“That the summit goes ahead is prone to be the largest deliverable,” the Atlantic Council’s Fleck mentioned.
“The very best end result is that the EU and China’s negotiators will comply with preserve speaking on the assorted points at play, together with tariffs, market entry, and Chinese language subsidies and overcapacity,” Fleck mentioned, pointing to a few of the many factors of competition between the companions.
One optimistic signal, Fleck mentioned, was affirmation that Chinese language President Xi Jinping will meet European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.
There may be different, smaller hints of change in EU-China relations, Lukas Fiala, venture coordinator of the China Foresight programme at LSE IDEAS, instructed CNBC.
“The summit can hardly reset years of financial and geopolitical tensions between the 2 sides,” Fiala mentioned, saying that the worsening of EU-China relations had “structural and longer-term” causes.
EU member states even have differing views on China, which makes it arduous for the EU to precise a united place, he added.
“I’ll look out for smaller modifications and language associated to export controls on EVs and uncommon earths throughout and after the summit, however don’t count on a giant shift in the established order,” Fiala mentioned.
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