Calculated Threat: CPI Preview

by Calculated Threat on 7/14/2025 02:31:00 PM

The Client Value Index for Could is scheduled to be launched tomorrow. The Client Value Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% enhance in CPI, and a 0.3% enhance in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.6% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 2.9% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We anticipate a 0.23% enhance in June core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), comparable to a year-over-year fee of two.93% (vs. +3.0% consensus). We anticipate a 0.30% enhance in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting greater meals costs (+0.25%) and power costs (+1.2%).
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Going ahead, tariffs will seemingly present a considerably bigger increase to month-to-month inflation, and we anticipate month-to-month core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4% over the following few months.

From BofA:

We forecast headline and core CPI to print at 0.3% m/m in June, which might be a
notable acceleration from the current pattern. Stronger value hikes for core items,
discretionary companies, and medical companies ought to drive the pickup in core inflation.
Based mostly on our forecast, we undertaking core PCE to print at 0.22% m/m in June, which might
decrease the chance of a September lower.

Notice that month-to-month inflation was gentle in Could and June 2024.

Click on on graph for bigger picture.

This graph exhibits the month-to-month change in each headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled space is the change for final when inflation was gentle.   CPI was down fractionally in June 2024, and core CPI was up 0.09%.