by Calculated Danger on 7/25/2025 02:01:00 PM
The advance estimate of Q2 GDP shall be launched subsequent Wednesday. The consensus is actual GDP elevated at a 2.5% annual price in Q2. BofA economists famous this morning:
“The rise within the headline print could be on the again of a reversal of the surge in imports as a result of pre-tariff entrance loading in 1Q. Shopper spending ought to enhance by 1.5% after the weather-driven 1Q decline. Tools funding is more likely to decline after the outsized enhance in 1Q. Therefore remaining gross sales will possible are available in at a weak 0.3%.”
From BofA:
Since our final weekly publication, our 2Q GDP monitoring is unchanged at 2.2% q/q saar. [July 25th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q2 GDP monitoring estimate unchanged at +2.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 home remaining gross sales estimate unchanged at +0.9%. [July 25th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP progress (seasonally adjusted annual price) within the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 % on July 25, unchanged from July 18 after rounding. The forecasts of the main GDP subcomponents have been all unchanged or little modified from their July 18 values after this week’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors. [July 25th estimate]
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