Per Kalshi, on 10/18 midday CT. At this fee, we miss Metro space Employment/Unemployment, Shopper Expenditures, Employment Value Index, Enterprise Employment Dynamics, September JOLTS, Productiveness and Prices, October Employment State of affairs releases on their scheduled dates.
Since this coming week (of the nineteenth) is interview week, it’s not clear (to me not less than) we ever get the October employment launch (presumably all the info for the September launch are sitting in some pc at BLS, protected until someone “by accident” deletes it).
At a minimal, October CPI launch is delayed (if it’s ever compiled — in any case, someone has to gather the info, and so far as I do know, the info collectors for the CPI are usually not designated important employees).
As famous right here, we’ll additionally miss the 2025Q3 advance GDP launch, in addition to month-to-month private revenue and outlays scheduled launch dates. How lengthy they’ll be delayed, who is aware of.
Right here’s my guess on personal NFP, primarily based on ADP (utilizing 3 month log variations, see this publish):
Determine 1: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment, implied preliminary benchmark (black), nowcast (mild blue), +/- 1 commonplace error interval. Supply: BLS, creator’s calculations.
If ADP is launched on November fifth, then I’ll have the ability to nowcast October BLS personal NFP, however with a but bigger prediction interval.
Because it appears to be like like we’ll be counting on various knowledge for some time, right here’re two graphs from Torsten Slok’s compilation.
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